Context: to build an alternative to existing modelling

The prospects for likely developments in world agricultural commodity markets are for the most part modelled on the basis of results provided by a limited number of international organisations such as the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations) and by American universities (FAPRI, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute).

The use of these models by States and non-governmental organisations has an impact on multilateral bargaining in the agricultural sector.

Given this high-stake context, the French government and professionals in the arable crop sector wished to strengthen France’s own ability to make projections, and so lent their support to the INRA-run project to build the Wemac model.

A double purpose : forecasting and simulation

The Wemac model is a forecasting tool. It generates medium-term annual projections for world cereals and oilseeds markets, assuming that agricultural policies remain unchanged. It can also be used to assess the respective roles of traditional operators and emerging countries on world agricultural markets.

The Wemac model is also a simulation tool that can be used to simulate the effects of alternative policy scenarios on arable crop and oilseeds markets. These scenarios include alternative agricultural, domestic and trade policies, changes in agriculture and external conditions such as fluctuating exchange rates (Euro/$) or macroeconomic shocks. The results of the simulation indicate the impact of these alternative scenarios on the equilibrium of world cereals and oilseed markets.

An absolute requirement: to provide a representation of French and European issues.

One of the major characteristics of current WEMAC modelling is that rather than being limited to an aggregate representation of the European Union as a whole, it actually provides information on each major European country, providing country-level estimates for France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United-Kingdom.